mabuse.de

Results Negative

Search

About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 4, 2008 3:56 PM.

The previous post in this blog was A No-No.

The next post in this blog is Make a vote.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

« A No-No | Main | Make a vote »

On The Human Factor

Interesting New York Times article on ignorance of the human factor in the mathematical models of risk as an important reason of the recent financial crisis. Missing quality of data and incomplete models are certainly part of the drama (a 'bullshit in - bullshit out' scenario), but can't be the only nor the main reason. What we experience here are the fruits of a collapsing market that reinvested its profits from real economy during the last 20 years that started running hot. The profits were taken from the diminishing middle class by means of offshoring, streamlining, and permanent optimizing. Enormous amounts of money flushed back into the market and were a major reason for the bubbles that are now bursting. The good money so created highly-sensitive financial products that were only survivable in boom times. If only a few parameters, such as the base rate, changed, the overly optimistic models played havock.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.mabuse.de/cgi-bin/MT/mt-tb.cgi/389

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)